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Predicting Global Aedes Vector Abundance and Future Outbreak Risks of Zika in a Changing Climate

Aedes mosquitoes, spreading Zika, Dengue, and Chikungunya, are proliferating in many of the most densely populated regions of the world, contributing to increasing disease burdens.

Considering the current lack of effective control mechanisms, disease risks can be expected to increase as human population grows, global
mobility increases, and climate change allows vector establishment in previously unaffected areas. Today, we lack validated methods for making predictions of Aedes mosquito population abundance, partly because Aedes population and invasion dynamics are still poorly understood. Understanding the dynamics of Aedes is critical for assessing outbreak risks of Zika, Dengue and Chikungunya virus in relation to local and global drivers of disease propagation. This project will develop mathematical-epidemiological methods for establishing validated estimates of Aedes mosquito abundance and predict the mid- to long-term dynamics of future Zika outbreaks at the global scale in different climate and development futures. The project is nested within the ongoing ZikaPLAN and the ISIPEDIA projects which secures data access and involvement of top-level international experts in many disciplines, and stakeholder dissemination to climate policy. By interfacing process-based models of Aedes ecology and Zika epidemiology with predictions of future demographic and climatic change, this project will enable more reliable projections than any study to date.

Read the Project Description

Title of Project

Predicting Global Aedes Vector Abundance and Future Outbreak Risks of Zika in a Changing Climate

Project Period

01/01/2018 - 12/31/2020

Subject areas

Epidemiology, Infectious diseases

Head of research

Joacim Rocklöv, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine

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