West Nile Virus in Europe: what are the drivers behind the increasing trend?
Friday 4 June, 2021at 08:30 - 09:30
Zia Farooq is a PhD student at the Section of sustainable health. His research focuses on machine learning and mechanistic mathematical modelling of emerging infectious diseases. He will present the preliminary results of his second manuscript within the framework of his dissertation.
The frequence, intensity and geographical occurrence of West Nile Virus (WNV) outbreaks has increased in Europe over the past decades. But the underlying spatial-temporal drivers, are not well understood. It may or may not be related to the migration of birds, the prevalence of mosquitoes, climate trends, socio-economic inequalities and/or mobility. Here we make use of explainable AI to study the drivers of WNV. Explainable AI (XAI) is a modern technique to interpret and explain the opacity of black box machine learning models. We find clear signs of climate being one of the main drivers of the trend of WNV outbreaks in Europe. This indicates a potential for making use of climate-related WNV early-warning system in order to prevent WNV in Europe.
The seminar will be in English and is arranged within the seminar series at Sustainable Health together with the Center for Occupational and Behavioral Medicine at Region Västerbotten.
Register via the form below. A link and code to Zoom is sent out to those registered before the seminar starts.
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