Climate change is already claiming lives in Europe – and the risks are increasing

Maria Nilsson, professor at the Department of Epidemiology and Global Health.

ImageSamuel Pettersson

“Millions of people are already being exposed to serious health risks as a result of climate change. The choices we make today will determine whether these trends intensify – or whether we build a safer and more resilient Europe,” says Maria Nilsson, Professor of Public Health at the Department of Epidemiology and Global Health at Umeå University and Chair of Lancet Countdown Europe.

The report concludes that human-induced climate change is already claiming lives and leading to increasingly severe health consequences across Europe. The number of extreme heat warnings has increased by 318% compared with the 1990s, and almost the entire continent is experiencing rising heat-related mortality. Heat-related deaths are estimated to have reached approximately 62,000 in 2024. Extreme heat disproportionately affects the most vulnerable populations, particularly infants, older adults, people with chronic illnesses, and outdoor workers.

At the same time, climate change is contributing to the spread of infectious diseases in Europe. The risk of dengue outbreaks has almost quadrupled since the 1980–2010 period, while coastlines suitable for infections caused by Vibrio bacteria have expanded significantly – even in countries such as Italy and France. In addition, the pollen season is now one to two weeks longer than in the 1990s, prolonging exposure for people with allergies.

Fossil fuels increase societal vulnerability

The report also highlights that Europe’s continued dependence on fossil fuels has serious consequences for public health. In an effort to mitigate sharply rising energy costs – exacerbated in large part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – government subsidies for fossil fuels in Europe amounted to €444 billion in 2023 alone. This represents more than a threefold increase compared with 2016, the year the Paris Agreement was adopted and countries committed to limiting global warming.

“Today, as conflict in Iran increases instability and human suffering in the region, it is becoming increasingly clear that Europe’s continued reliance on fossil fuels makes our economies, public finances, and ultimately our health more vulnerable,” says Jan Semenza, Professor at the Department of Epidemiology and Global Health at Umeå University.

“The single most important thing to do is to rapidly phase out fossil fuels and reduce emissions, while simultaneously adapting societies to rising heat. This delivers the greatest overall health benefits, both in the short and long term,” says Maria Nilsson.