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Effects of climate change and variability on community vulnerability and exposure to dengue in South East Asia (DENCLIM) (Forskerprosjekt – KLIMAFORSK)

Research project Climate change is currently one of the most important emerging global concerns. It affects health directly by exposure to climatic extremes and indirectly through impacts on water quality and quantity, temperature, social infrastructure or through direct effects on secondary organisms, such as disease vectors.

Assessing potential health impacts of climate change and climate variability requires understanding of the vulnerability of a population and its capacity to respond to new conditions. Laos and Thailand, the two study countries, are both vulnerable, in various ways, to the direct effects of climate change, such as floods and droughts and several indirect effects that increase their vulnerability. Dengue, Zika and chikungunya are arboviruses transmitted by mosquito vectors. Higher temperatures affect mosquito and virus development, and rainfall may increase mosquito proliferation.

Head of project

Joacim Rocklöv
Visiting professor

Project overview

Project period:

2018-01-01 2021-04-30

Participating departments and units at Umeå University

Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine

Research area

Public health and health care science

Project description

Contribute to improved health and welfare of people in Laos and Thailand by
development of new knowledge and methodologies about potential effects of
climate change and climate variability on dengue.


  1. Identify and quantify populations at risk of dengue in study areas of Laos and Thailand by comparative vulnerability mapping.

  2. Determine socio-economic and environmental risk factors of dengue.

  3. Assess the strength of the relationships between entomological indices and variation in dengue incidence.

  4. Determine potential associations between climate-caused changes in seasonality and dengue incidence.

  5. Identify areas of elevated dengue risk due to climate change based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5.

Latest update: 2019-03-15