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Kartläggning av miljö- och klimatfaktorers inverkan på infektionsutbrott i Europa

Forskningsprojekt Markanvändning, klimatvariabilitet och klimatförändringar är viktiga i avseende både vad gäller sjukdomsutbredning och tid för infektionsutbrott. Prediktiva modeller kan hjälpa beslutsfattare att förbättra det preventiva arbetet.

Samkörning av stora databaser med satellitdata om miljö, samt socioekonomiska data inbjuder till analys av hur komplexa faktorer bidrar till infektionsspridning. Varningssystem och långtidsprognoser av sjukdomspanorama i scenarier av klimatförändringar vägleder strategiskt anpassningsarbete för att skydda folkhälsan. Projektet syftar stödja Europeiska smittskyddsinstitutet i dess arbete med att bygga upp en databas för miljöfaktorer och dess inverkan på infektionssjukdomar, samt accelerera utvecklingen av varningssystem och åtgärdsplaner.


Joacim Rocklöv



2014-10-01 2016-12-31


ECDC, 2014: 1 821 000 kr

Medverkande institutioner och enheter vid Umeå universitet

Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin


Folkhälsovetenskap och hälsovetenskap, Klinisk medicin


Environmental factors are significant drivers of infectious diseases. Land‐use patterns, such as intensive agriculture, deforestation, irrigation or road construction, are important determinants of infectious disease spread. Urbanization and urban sprawl have encroached agricultural and semi‐natural areas in Europe, and the trend is expected to continue. One consequence is that wildlife may increasingly need to find new habitats, sometimes in urban or abandoned environments which have a bearing on exposure to infectious
pathogens. Climatic conditions are also significant drivers of infectious diseases and climate change can shift the distribution of infectious diseases.

Merging environmental, satellite, demographic, etc data sets and integrating their data requirements would allow for the analysis of complex interactions and generate essential information that increases our understanding of these systems. Identifying long‐term projections would build the evidence base for strategic public health action while identifying short‐term events linked to environmental conditions would help improve and accelerate early warning and response capability. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has recognised the need to develop an infrastructure coined the European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network to help monitor environmental conditions related to infectious disease threats. The hub is designed as a data repository that would support data exchanges and sustained collaborations between member states, researchers, and other authorised users across geographical and political boundaries. Such a network would promote Europe‐wide quality standards for environmental data, leverage existing investments, and increase the use of available data sets. The E3 Network could provide technical support for the reporting, monitoring,
analysis, and mapping of data and enhance the analytical capacity of existing resources in Europe. Results could then be disseminated to policy makers, public health practitioners, European Union and international agencies, other governmental sectors, and non‐governmental organisations. In recognition of the above, we acknowledge the health threat from climate change, referring to it as one of three priority areas for ensuring health security.

This tender aims to support the European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network with epidemiologic modelling of environmental drivers of infectious diseases. The purpose is to provide mathematical models
of infectious disease transmission dynamics related to climate change and alterations in habitat/ecosystems. These epidemiologic models should be used to delineate areas of risk and help with the development of early warning systems.

Senast uppdaterad: 2019-11-26